Russia - Ukraine Deadlock

Russia first invaded Ukraine on February 20, 2014, when it began its military operation to seize Crimea during the Obama administration.  He conceded to the annexation of Crimea.

That was followed by Russia’s support for armed separatists in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions later in 2014.  Obama did nothing.

During his first term, Trump did nothing.

A much larger, full-scale invasion began on February 24, 2022 during the Biden administration, when Russian forces attacked Ukraine from multiple directions, including from Belarus and occupied Crimea.

Since Trump started his second term, Putin has greatly escalated the missile and drone attacks on Ukraine.  Putin feels emboldened and is making a show of strength.

For whatever reason, Trump has been treating Putin with kid’s gloves.  He has made no progress on resolution.

After 10 years we should know that a Strategy of ceasefire followed by negotiation and expectation that Ukraine should cede their occupied territory is a Non-Starter.

Putin has never honored a ceasefire or made serious negotiations.  He continues to play with the world.  If he wins his way in Ukraine, he will only look for his next conquest.

Remember Hitler’s demand to annex the Sudetenland from Czechoslovakia.  Neville Chamberlain traveled from the U.K. to broker a deal. Hitler got what he wanted, and the Prime Minister went home with a piece of paper in his hand touting “This means peace in our time.” 

It was not long after that Hitler ignored the agreement and invaded Poland.  Shortly after that Chamberlain was out, replaced by Winston Churchill.  By sheer determination, Churchill saved the U.K. from destruction by Hitler.

Putin is taking a page from Hitler’s playbook to expand his territory.  He does not think he will get the resistance that Nazi Germany got from the Allies.

Like Hitler, Putin has established a permanent autocracy governing by police power, propaganda and deceit.  If he wins the territory in Ukraine, he will soon be looking for more.  Again, like Hitler.

This is an international crisis that needs multilateral efforts against Russian aggression.

As suggested earlier, negotiation is a Futile Strategy.  Putin will never give up anything.

World Leaders need to accept the reality, speak out, and take action instead of sitting in their comfortable offices hoping it will just go away.

Cogport proposes a Strategy for more direct opposition to Russia: 

Putin thinks he will win.  Nothing will stop him short of hard confrontation.

Trump has overestimated his confidence that he can influence Putin with a relationship.

The invasion of Ukraine is not that easily solved.  Ukraine is right to expect that the occupied territory should be vacated by Russia.  Ukraine is the victim here.

The objective is to put maximum pressure on Putin.  Squeeze the Russian Economy and cut off the major source of cash flow.  This would reduce Putin funding for military action and put him in a weak position.

Step 1:

Increase direct sanctions on Russia with every method possible.

Step 2:

Impose high tariffs on countries that purchase Russian Oil.

Step 3:

Increase military aid to Ukraine – defensive and offensive equipment.  Provide more technology and manpower to support Ukrainian troops on the front lines.

Putin will not capitulate overnight.  Like Hitler, he refuses to retreat or pull back even in the face of massive losses and failure. 

This strategy will take time.  But the world has already let 10 years go by with no change. 

This Strategy will change things. 

If Putin does not relent, the military response should be to drive Russia out of Ukraine.

Russia’s invasion should not be left to stand, or our future is in for more trouble.

SUMMARY

Trump will meet with Putin on Friday.  It is not clear that Trump has a Strategy.  Sounds like he is just trying to test the waters.  There is nothing there for Trump to negotiate given Putin’s uncompromisable Demands.

Will Trump come around to the Reality as described above ?  That remains to be seen.

A recommended course would be to build a coalition of the U.S. and Euro countries to enact this Strategy for Direct Opposition and Pressure to beat Russia back from their ill-gotten gains.

All a matter of Leadership aand Courage.  Where are the Churchill’s and FDR’s when we need them ?

David Hollaender                                               August 11, 2025

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