Iran Strategy - Part 8
- davidcogd
- Apr 22
- 2 min read
Since the last Cogport post on April 10, much has transpired in the situation with Iran. We will not repeat all that here. You know if you follow the news. Read the previous posts for background.
Here is an assessment of current events.
Trump’s strategy has come in fits and starts, trying to adjust to the changing picture.
He has landed on a good strategy to blockade Iran to squeeze their supply of materials and starve them of income from oil shipments.
This leads to the major remaining issues:
The Strait of Hormuz: Despite cease fire agreements, factions in Iran continue to attack freighters in the Strait.
Problem -the cease fires were negotiated with people who do not have full control and authority.
A primary rule in negotiations is that both parties must have authority to act. That no longer exists in Iran. As Trump has concluded, the regime is fractured. There can be no real deal in that situation.
Given that, here is a plan forward without blowing Iran back to the Stone Age. (No one wants that – such harm to infrastructure and loss to the Iranian people who are under the heel of a tyranny – not their fault).
Continue the blockade – create maximum stress on Iran’s resources.
Declare the strait open. Create Convoys of freighters with protection of Navy ships running ahead, behind and on sides.
It may take some convincing and possibly guarantees to get tanker owners to participate in Convoys. Consider that they have huge capital assets sitting idle, and the financial pressure must be building to do something.
Any attempt to attack a Convoy by Iran should receive an immediate and targeted bombing response. The resources are there.
This will allow the transit of oil out of the Gulf and reduce oil prices.
Many in Trump’s party would like to see a quick resolution before Mid-term elections. This may not be in the cards.
This strategy will take Time and Endurance.
We will see if Trump can stay the course and communicate the situation to the American public.
It will take until the factions in Iran coalesce in one voice, or Iran’s system totally collapses.
David Hollaender April 22, 2026
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