Iran Strategy - Part 9

Time has passed as we have watched a lack of progress over the last 2 weeks in Iran.

In Part 8 of this series, Cogport projected it would take Time and Endurance to resolve the situation.

Cogport also recommended the organization of convoys to move oil through the Strait of Hormuz.  No serious effort has been made considering this would open flow to the world again.  Owners of tankers are risk averse and will not take a chance on an attack from Iran.

That risk can be contained with the right escort plans, on the water and in the air.

The Saudi’s, UAB, and Kuwait are not motivated to help – they have lost shipping volume, but revenue is largely maintained with oil price over $100 per barrel.

For now, China has enough reserves and alternative sources to maintain itself, although cost is higher.  Iran has been a major supplier to China.  So, they prefer to avoid any conflict with the old relationship.  That is why Trump came home from the China trip this week with no agreement on fixing Iran.

At this point, the U.S. is on its own to resolve Iran and the Strait.

The Issues Going Forward:

Th Primary Issue is the fractured leadership in Iran, as earlier noted in previous Parts of this Series.  The different factions all share the same radical ideology, but they are not working together.

The IRGC is the most powerful influence on events in Iran. This will not change without elimination of their position.  They will persist and retain their position (and money) as long as possible.  The idea that they will somehow change their ideology for a peace agreement is delusional.

Trump attempts at cease-fire and peace agreements are a dead end.  No faction in Iran has the authority for such agreement, and their ideology is not conducive to a reasonable outcome. 

Next Actions:

For Trump: Stop looking for a quick exit by negotiation.  That is not going to happen for a permanent solution.

Continue the embargo.  Choke the funds that Iran depends on from export of oil and prevent import of weapons from Russia and China.

Establish the convoy system through the Strait of Hormuz.  That may require an insurance guarantee for the owners of the tankers to encourage participation.  We have the defense assets there – use them.  (Note: the loss of a Very Large Crude Carrier loaded with oil approaches $250 Million.)

Target new strikes on IRGC locations.  Unfortunately, they embed themselves in civilian areas.  Start with notice to civilians to leave those areas. Then hit them.  The IRGC may also flee, but it will disrupt their operations and put them in more vulnerable positions.

Worst Case: Start taking out select infrastructure.  That would make recovery much harder for the people of Iran who are the victims of a repressive regime.  We can only hope that is not necessary.

The radical Iran regime must be ended for a permanent solution.

It comes back to: Time and Endurance.  Something our current political policy seems to lack for a long-term peace solution that affects the world.

David Hollaender                                                  May 17,2026

Cogport.com