Global Foreign Policy - Part 5 - More on Iran

You may want to read previous Cogport posts for background and context.

Trump made a bold move to remove the Communist Dictator Maduro from Venezuela.

Maduro’s regime took money from oil profits, but let the oil infrastructure decline – working at only 20% of previous capacity.

American companies are now working to recover and expand the capacity of Venezuela’s Oil Reserves.

This great improvement expands global oil supplies which will keep prices down.  And the action will improve the jobs and prosperity of the Venezuelan people who were abused under Maduro.

Now that Venezuela’s Oil is open to the free market, China has been cut out of a discounted black-market deal with Maduro.  They will have to procure oil at the global market price.

The action also isolates Communist Cuba which survived on Venezuela’s support.

Since Venezuela, all foreign policy attention has been diverted to Iran.

Major Event with Iran – Background

• On June 13, 2025, Iran launched a large-scale missile and drone barrage against Israel.

• It involved hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones, making it the largest ever direct Iranian attack on Israel.

• Iran’s development of nuclear bombs became an imminent threat.

• On June 21, 2025, the U.S. sent B-2 Bombers to deliver bunker-buster bombs to disable Iran nuclear facilities.

• The operation’s name was Midnight Hammer.

• It was a major setback for Iran’s nuclear bomb program.

• It was a major setback for Iran’s nuclear bomb program.

• However, Iran did preserve 900 pounds of Uranium already refined to the 60% level.

Major Events – Since Then

• Iran continues attacks on Israel.

• Iran redeveloped plan to enrich its stock of Uranium to 90% - bomb level.

• Once started, the enrichment process would only take 2 weeks.

• That amount of Uranium could make 10 very large Atomic Bombs, or many tactical Nukes.

• Iran developed Ballistic Missiles that could reach Paris or London.

• Iran was close to completion of a Missile that could reach the U.S.

Iran’s terror regime has openly declared “Death to Israel” and “Death to America.”

Imagine what Iran could do with nuclear warheads, including reach to the U.S.

Negotiations with the Ayatollah were futile – he bargained for time with no desire to reach a credible agreement.

The timing made it imperative for the President to take immediate action and eliminate Iran’s threat.

Now the U.S. has entered the action called Epic Fury.

Taking on Iran is not an overnight effort like removing Maduro from Venezuela which was clean and quick.

Here is what we faced with Iran at the start of Epic Fury:

• 600,000 active military forces, 6^th largest in the world.

• Ballistic-missile inventory at about 3,500.

• Cruise Missile inventory at about 400.

• Drone Inventory at about 10,000. (One of their specialties).

Current Situation:

The Ayatollah Khamenei and 40 of his top minions were killed in one of the first strikes.

The remaining leadership continues the destructive policies of the Mullahs.  They will not give up easily.

Remaining Stockpiles of Weapons:

Through Usage and Destruction, Iran’s arsenal stockpile has been dramatically reduced.  Estimates are Iran now has:

• ~500 – 1,200 ballistic missiles

• ~150 – 350 cruise missiles

• ~500 – 1,500 drones

Their launch rates have significantly diminished.

However, the remaining Stockpile is still a dangerous arsenal.

That is keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed, and global oil prices to skyrocket.  The price is a burden we will have to live with until a final resolution is reached. 

Fortunately, the U.S. has achieved oil independence again.  We do not need to be concerned with domestic shortages.  Other countries like China and India will have a big problem before long.  The rest of the world, including Europe, depends on oil flow from the Middle East.

At the recent rate of weapons usage and loss, Iran could hold out another 2 weeks to 2 months before complete depletion. 

Then What?

In the next post, Cogport will present a strategy going forward.

Trump plans a News Conference on April 6.  We shall see if this sheds any new light to consider.

We will also further discuss the fractured NATO organization and their lack of contribution to the Iran effort. 

David Hollaender                                                      April 5, 2026

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