The Energy Grid - A Shortage Coming

This post is the start of a Series about the U.S. Electrical Grid.

Electric is a critical component of our Infrastructure that has been neglected for lack of policy vision. It is not an easy fix.

This Series is data intensive to provide a full background on the subject.

Cogport will present the basic Data and provide Commentary to explain.

We hope you will take it all in; we will try to break it down to digestible bites.

The Basic Background:

The Total U.S. Demand for Electric in 2024 was 4,086 TWh ~4.09 trillion kilowatt Hours (kWh).

That converts to an average continuous power level of 466,000 MegaWatts - MW (466 GW) of Power Generation - the basic measure of production capacity and consumption.

U.S. Energy Capacity

The subject immediately becomes complicated.

A measure called “Nameplate Capacity” shows the total potential output of all existing energy plants running at the highest potential capacity.

That potential capacity is about 1,320,900 MW (1320 GW).

Compare that to Current Demand of 466,000 MW and you would conclude we have plenty of Capacity.

The Nameplate Capacity is totally misleading.  Only a fraction of potential capacity is available at any given moment.

This Table shows estimated Usable Capacity in MW by source:

Fuel Source    Nameplate Capacity   Capacity Factor    Usable Capacity

Natural Gas            560,000                       50%                        280,000

Coal                       186,000                       45%                           83,700

Nuclear                   99,000                        90%                           89,100

Wind                     148,000                        35%                           51,800

Solar                     248,000                        25%                           62,000

Hydro                     79,900                         37%                           29,560

Fuel Cells                    384                         80%                               307     

TOTAL              1,320,900                                                         596,507

Commentary

Compare Usage of 466,000 MW to Usable Capacity of 596,507 MW.

The U.S. is currently consuming 78% of Usable Capacity.

That is a dangerously high demand level situation versus capacity. 

Dispatchable, always-available power is coming into challenge.

What’s Coming: Demand Growth

Increasing Demand is coming. We are not prepared for:

1.   Economic Growth

2.   AI Technology Data Centers

3.   Adoption of EV Vehicles

Impacts:

1. GDP nominal growth is forecast at about 4.2% per year in 2026 and 2027.  That implies a general increase in Energy Demand of 8% in the next two years, or 37,000 MW by 2028.

2. AI Technology is the big driver in the forecast of demand for Energy used by Central Data Centers.  The Demand is expected to reach 108,000 MW by 2028. That is another increase of 46,200 MW.

3. The rate of adoption of Electric Vehicles is a matter of opinion at this time.  At the current growth rate of sales, the Demand would increase by 9,000 MW.

By 2028, the 3 Impacts listed above will create an expected additional demand of 92,200 MW of new capacity.

Restatement of Current Capacity and Future Demand:

Existing Capacity  2025                              596,507  MW                                                                                                  

Expected Demand by 2028                    688,707  MW

The above data show that the U.S. needs to add at least 100,000 MW of capacity by 2028.

SUMMARY

The Current rate of new builds does not support the expected Demand.

A Demand higher than the Supply will drive electricity prices up.

This situation derives from poor policy, lack of planning, and public attitudes against new energy infrastructure.

The next report will cover new capacity in the development stage, and the alternatives needed to resolve against a future shortage of electric power.

David Hollaender                                   December 29,2025

Cogport.com