Russia - Ukraine Update
- davidcogd
- Feb 19
- 3 min read
Cogport.com posted policy articles about the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 8/11/25 and 8/16/25. These are still available on our post list and are recommended for background reading.
In Summary, Cogport concluded that more support was needed for Ukraine to oppose an incursion by Russia (Putin) intended to expand their territorial domain. A throwback to the days of the Soviet Empire which collapsed in the 1990’s.
Let’s look at what has happened since last August reports.
The EU has made progress in reduction of dependence on Russian oil and natural gas.
EU Energy dependence in 2022 was about 27% of Total Demand.
EU Energy dependence today is about 3% of Total Demand.
That puts the EU in a better position for policy actions in support of Ukraine.
What support has been provided to Ukraine:
The EU has provided approximately $ 67 Billion in Military support since the war began
The U.S. has provided approximately $ 67 Billion in Military support.
Ukraine has spent approximately $ 170 Billion in Military since the war began
The total of these 3 Sources is $ 304 Billion.
To put this in context, Russia has spent an estimated $ 550 Billion on the war against Ukraine, 80% more than the combined resources of the Ukraine, EU, and U.S.
The Killing:
Russia estimated – 300,000 military deaths.
Ukraine estimated – 57,000 military, 15,000 civilian deaths.
Nobody is winning – the deadlock goes on with Russia in possession of significant areas of Ukraine.
Trump has not been especially friendly to Ukraine. The reasons are unclear. Russia continues relentless attacks on Ukraine, now targeting civilians and utilities.
Putin poses a continued threat of expansion while the EU and U.S. watch.
Talks with Putin are a dead end – he knows what he wants and the aggression will continue.
The only way to meet force is with force – you can’t negotiate with an unwilling party (Putin) who is hungry for expansion. Economic and diplomatic sanctions have had no effect on Putin.
Cogport suggests a ramp-up of military support for Ukraine, including Defensive and Offensive weapons.
The Defense should concentrate on the northern border of Ukraine to eliminate the missile and drone attacks.
The Offense should concentrate on Ukraine’s eastern territory that has been occupied by Russia. Drive them back to the original borders.
This is not an easy proposal.
Russia has a large economy and economic support from China. GDP Growth slowed sharply in 2025 and is projected to be modest in 2026 as sanctions, high interest rates, and structural headwinds weigh on the economy.
The Russian economy is heading towards stagnation:
Russia’s GDP Growth slowed to 0.8% in 2026 (IMF Projection).
Inflation has increased to over 8%.
Political popular dissent is not tolerated under the Russian regime. It remains to be seen if Putin’s dictatorship can be destabilized. Difficult to predict with his repression of any dissent.
The imposition of new military assets in Ukraine would put additional pressure on the Russian economy. Putin may change his approach if he sees an overwhelming response from the West and Russia’s weakening economy.
Russia also has the threat of nuclear weapons which Putin has made clear. He uses that as an advantage.
Western countries should make it equally clear that if nukes are deployed, the response from the EU and the U.S. would be devastating to Russia and its people. A suicidal move by Russia.
SUMMARY
A regime change in Russia is not plausible right now. Putin is not going way unless the Russian Military revolts against him.
Only a massive influx of military capability to Ukraine could turn the tide.
In the meantime, Trump is focused on Iran. Another case where regime change is needed. Talks with the Ayatollah’s government are just biding time. The end strategy remains to be revealed as Trump builds an armada of warships in the area.
That will be the focus of our next report.
David Hollaender December 19, 2026
Comments