EV's: Current and Future

EV’s are a growing portion of the total U.S. auto fleet.  This Report covers the current situation and future potential.

• Approximately 100 million passenger cars are registered in the United States

• About 6.5% (6.5 million) of those are electric vehicles (EV’S) and Hybrids.

In 2024, Total U.S. New Car Sales were……… 16 Million

Number of EV’s ………………………………… 1.6 Million

About 10% of New Vehicle Sales were EV in 2024.

Future Forecast for EV Sales:

Recent industry analysis shows that U.S. EV new-vehicle sale share has slowed relative to some earlier expectations.

Historically, EV sales are highly sensitive to upfront price discounts because the purchase cost averages about $6,000 more than an ICE Gas Car.

The Federal Tax Credit was a large incentive to purchase an EV.  The Tax Credit has now been eliminated, so growth of EV’s has slowed.

A future forecast for EV sales is difficult to project given the recent headwinds in adoption.

The sales growth has been slowed by the higher initial costs and range anxiety.

Still, analysts project continued double-digit growth during the 2025–2028 period at an annual growth rate about 10% per year.

Based on 2024 Sales of 1.6 Million Units, that forecast means an additional 5 Million EV’s on the road by 2028.

Comparison of EV’s to Gasoline (ICE) Vehicles

There is a lot of good to be said for EV’s. 

On average, the EV energy cost per year (15,000 miles) is $675 for home charging.

The average energy cost per year for gas in an ICE car is $1,750.  Almost 3 times as much as an EV to operate.

The design of an EV is also much lower to maintain than an ICE vehicle. 

An EV has routine maintenance such as tires, brakes, filters, inspections, etc.)  

EV Annual Cost estimated at $500.

An ICE car’s engine and drivetrain have hundreds of moving parts, needs oil changes, fuel system maintenance, transmission service, multiple sensors, etc., which add to costs.  AAA data shows

ICE car maintenance cost at $949 annually.

Annual Cost Comparison

EV - Energy and Maintenance              $1,175         

ICE - Energy and Maintenance             $2,700

Save $ 1,525 per Year with an EV.

Over 5 Years you would save $7,625 versus ownership costs of an ICE Car.  That more than makes up the difference in initial cost.

Lack of Information and Range Anxiety are the biggest impediments to growth in the market for EV’s.  If you use an EV for local trips, it is easier to charge every night as opposed to stopping at a station to pump gas. 

Range Anxiety

The typical range for a Mainstream modern EV is: ~220–300 miles per charge. 

The average range for an ICE (gasoline) car is 350–450 miles on a full tank.

The average usage of a car in the U.S. is about 40 miles per day.  One charge on an EV is good for 4-5 days.  But you can easily plug in to charge every day at home. Start every day with a fresh charge with no anxiety about local range. 

Or stay with gasoline and stop to fill the tank every week – 50 times a year. 

Also consider that EV’s have a lower Carbon Footprint over their life span.

If you take many long trips, it will require more planning with an EV given the lack of public infrastructure for charging.  That situation will improve over time, but it is a fact to deal with today.

SUMMARY

EV’s are a very viable choice.  If you have a household with two or more cars, make one an

EV for local use and maintain an ICE vehicle for long journeys.

It is a good long-term solution for the environment, lower personal expenses, and less hassle for maintenance.

The expanded use of EV’s does introduce another subject:  Increased use of electricity for charging is a challenge to the current energy grid.

In future posts, Cogport will have a Series of Reports on the U.S. electricity grid and impending lack of Capacity to meet Demand.

David Hollaender                                      December 22 ,2025

Cogport.com