Economic Record Of Presidents Since 1980

The Presidential Campaigns are now in high gear.  We can expect many political statements about economic performance. 

This Post will provide Perspective on the actual results under Presidents since 1980.  Please keep these numbers in mind as we hear claims that may lack accuracy, or are just plain false.

Table of Average % GDP Growth and Federal Spending as a % of GDP.

President	Years	GDP                  Annual Growth	Fed Spend
		Average	Percent of GDP
Reagan	1981-1988	4.03%	22.0%
Bush 41	1989-1992	2.25%	21.0%
Clinton	1993-2000	3.86%	19.0%
Bush  43	2001-2008	2.64%	18.8%
Obama	2009 - 2016	1.94%	22.3%
Trump	2017 - 2020	2.53%	22.0%
	(Exc. 2020)
Biden	2021 - 2023	2.30%	26.9%
	(Exc. 2021)
Overall Average	1980 - 2020	2.75%	20.7%

Note:  The GDP rates above do not include 2020 and 2021 numbers.  These were years of extreme anomalies due to the Covid Pandemic.  Neither party deserves blame or credit for an economic fall and recovery from a Virus made in China.

Those “outlier” numbers were:

2020:  -3.4% GDP decrease under Trump (Probably cost his re-election).

2021:  5.9% GDP increase reflects recovery of the 2020 loss of -3.4%.

Taking out the recovery effect in 2021 the “Normalized” GDP would be 2.5% under Biden, which is near historical average.

Chart of GDP Growth by Year and President since 1980:

Notes and Commentary By President:

Reagan

·         Inherited a recession with record high Inflation and Interest rates (Stagflation).

·         Created the best GDP in this group with 4.03% Growth.

·         Spending was higher than average due to Military Build-up.

·         Established Détente with Gorbachev.

·         Strategy to break up the Soviet Union by outspending them on Military Defense.

·         Tax Reform Act of 1986 working with Tip O’Neill, leading to further economic growth.

Bush 41

·         Built an international coalition for Desert Storm against Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait.

·         GDP fell slightly in 1991 due to the War, and an overdue recession.

·         Spending was slightly above average partly due to cost of Desert Storm.

Clinton

·         Close to Reagan in above average GDP Growth at 3.86%.

·         Excellent record on Federal Spending.

·         The last President with a Budget Surplus, working with Newt Gingrich on the Budget.

·         Economy benefited from the PC / Internet Revolution driving Productivity and Growth.

·         Passed strong Reform Bills on Crime and Welfare.

Bush 43

·         Near average GDP growth.

·         Lowest Federal Spending as a percent of GDP at 18.8%.

·         Budget Deficits high due to the Iraq War, one of the largest mistakes in U.S. History.

·         Laxity in oversight of banking industry led to Financial Crisis of 2008.

Obama

·         Weakest performance in the Economy with GDP Growth of 1.9%, well below average.

·         Lackluster recovery from recession after 2008 Financial Crisis.

·         Federal Spending the highest at  22.3% of GDP.

·         Average Annual Budget Deficit of $316 Billion.

Trump

·         Slightly below average GDP Growth at 2.5%.

·         Federal Spending worse than average at 22% of GDP.

·         Average Annual Budget Deficit of $ 330 Billion.

Biden

·         GDP Growth at 2.30%, well below average of 2.75%.

·         Explosive Increase in Federal Spending at 26.9% versus average of 20.7%.

·         2022 Budget Deficit of $ 680 Billion.

·         2023 Budget Deficit of $ 1,017  Billion (Over $ 1 Trillion), more than 3 times the spend under Trump.

·         Highest inflation since Carter in the Seventies.

·         Reduction in Real Wages of 10.5%

SUMMARY

The current economic conditions under Biden do not bode well for Democrats in the November elections.  They cannot explain away the extreme Spending and Deficit numbers.

Covid is well over.  Trump has been out for 3 Years.  These are not valid excuses that Democrats use to blame something other than their own actions.

Clinton strategist, James Carville, coined an enduring phrase that Democrats should heed:

“It’s The Economy, Stupid.”

David Hollaender   July 26, 2024                                                                                                          

Cogport.com