The Price Of Beef

The issue of Affordability for average Americans has reached center stage. 

As it should be.

Food cost inflation over the last 5 years has been a major issue.  Beef is a major component of our nutrition.

This post will focus on why the price of beef has risen so much, and how that can change. 

In 2018, one pound of ground beef averaged $ 3.18 per lb.

In 2022, one pound of ground beef averaged $ 5.31 per lb.

Today, one pound of ground beef averages  $ 6.32 per lb.

That is double the price of 7 years ago.

Background Facts:

First, the production of Cattle is highly cyclical.  Historically it runs in 10-year cycles, depending on several factors.

When the market is depressed, or costs are too high, farmers reduce herd size by selling off cattle.  This is a business survival technique to raise cash.

Herds can quickly be downsized by sales. However, it takes a long time to build back herd size.

Here is why:

The gestation period of a cow is approximately roughly 9 months.

The time for a new calf to reach full growth for selling as Finished Cattle is 18–24 months.

Summary:  The time to increase a herd size is approximately 31 months, or over 2 ½ years.

Once the national herd is depleted, there is no quick catch-up.

Recent History:

The current U.S. cattle count became depleted.

The U.S. beef-herd inventory was at its lowest level in decades as of early 2024.

As of January 1, 2018 the inventory of all cattle and calves in the U.S. totaled 94.4 million head 

As of December 31 2022 inventory of all cattle and calves in the United States was about 88.0 million head.

That was a reduction of 7% in headcount from 2018.  It fell due to various conditions:

Herds were reduced due to weather (Drought), low prices, and high cost of feed (Corn and other supplies).

The Economic Law of Supply & Demand set in - with lower supply and increasing demand – prices of beef went up.

Current Situation

In the last few years, farmers have been rebuilding herds.

The current inventory of all cattle and calves on U.S. farms was 94.2 million head. Still less than 2018 but catching up – remember it’s a 10-year cycle.

In the meantime, demand for beef continues to increase.

So, the laws of Economics do not bode with much short-term relief in retail prices for Beef.

What Can Be Done ?

The domestic rebuilding of herds is an on-going process.

The best option is to encourage more imports of beef cattle to add to the supply side of the economic equation:

Ease regulations and tariffs on imports of beef from Mexico and South America.

For example, a Trump tariff of 40% on beef from Brazil was just removed.

Whatever we can add to the supply of beef will help control prices.

Not any easy problem to solve with the long lead time for new production.

David Hollaender                                                25 November 2025

Cogport.com