The Energy Grid - Part 4
- davidcogd
- Jan 16
- 3 min read
In Part 3 we estimated the cost of Construction for new plants from different Fuel Sources. Let’s break it down by cost per MW of Usable Capacity
Cost to Build New Plants – Initial Investment Required Per MW
Type Initial cost per MW Construction
of Usable Capacity Leadtime
Coal $ 6.4 Million 5 + Years
Natural Gas (CCGT) $ 2.2 Million 3 Years
Nuclear (Large) $ 6.2 Million 6 + Years
Nuclear (Small Modular) $ 4.4 Million 4 + Years
Solar $ 2.5 Million 3 Years
Wind $ 3.4 Million 3 Years
Hydro $ 6.3 Million 6 + Years
Fuel Cells $ 3.1 Million 1 Year
ANAYLISIS
COAL Plants:
High Cost of construction and operation under U.S. regulations make coal not a viable future option, even though the cost of fuel is low. Coal has a Carbon Dioxide emission rate about twice as high as Natural Gas plants due to the different chemistries of the two. Coal also emits other compounds that create a high cost of control. This eliminates Coal as an option in the U.S.
It is interesting to note that China has elected to ignore the emissions issue. China is on track for roughly 150+ large coal plant units commissioned over the last decade. Equivalent to about 300,000 MW of power. (Remember we estimate the U.S. needs to add 260,000 MW by 2030).
LARGE NUCLEAR PLANTS
The high cost and time of construction, custom design, and site issues eliminate this as a viable option for the future.
WIND and SOLAR PLANTS
They have the benefit of zero emissions. However, the limited availability of reliable power 24 hours per day makes them a highly inefficient source. After adding in the back-up resources needed to maintain consistent supply, the cost is about 25% higher for the consumer than other sources.
Not a viable option.
NATURAL GAS (CCGT)
The new technology is highly efficient. The lowest cost per MW of capacity to build. The lowest cost per kWh delivered to the customer at $ 0.16.
This is a highly viable source with abundant supply of Natural Gas in the U.S.
Emissions – CO2 for a 1000 MW plant: 1.8 million tons per year.
Total CO2 Emissions from all U.S. Sources: 5,500 million tons per year.
The emissions from a new gas plant would add about 0.03 % to total U.S. emissions. A negligible amount compared to the need for energy.
NUCLEAR – SMALL MODULAR REACTORS (SMR)
Initial cost is about double that of a Gas CCGT plant per kWH.
The cost per kWh is about $0.18 compared to Gas at $0.16.
However it has Zero Emissions and high rate of usable capacity with full time reliability.
It has high potential for the future with a scale-up in production, reducing costs and lead time.
New policy should support this option with fewer regulations.
It has a modular design that uses a small footprint, and can be scaled from small (50 MW) to large (1000 MW) with multiple modules.
Ideal for local applications and large, including AI Data Centers, longer term.
HYDRO POWER
Extremely Large Projects with long lead time, but with many benefits.
Low cost of Operation once in place.
Zero Emissions and High Reliability.
Important other Economic factors make Hydro Dams an attractive option:
Large reservoirs of water will be increasingly important in the future, especially in areas challenged by water shortages.
Commercial, Residential and Recreational opportunity abound around large lakes.
This other economic growth significantly offsets the initial cost of construction.
A highly viable option, long term.
FUEL CELLS
A little-known option with High Potential for short term needs and local installations for AI Data Centers and small communities.
Advantage – quick installation at reasonable initial cost (but higher than a Gas plant per kWh). Initial costs will fall as the scale of demand and module production increases.
Cost per kWh comparable to a Gas plant.
Other Advantages:
Modular Design can be scaled from small to large installations.
Zero Emissions.
Small Footprint, minimum regulatory barriers.
A highly viable option.
SUMMARY
A lot of data has been presented comparing the different options.
In the next post Cogport will present the outline of a National Plan with use of the different options to meet a Goal of 260,000 MW added capacity by 2030.
David Hollaender January 16, 2026
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