The Energy Grid - Final Part

In the previous 5 Parts of this Series, Cogport reviewed the current situation of energy shortage and proposed a plan for added capacity by 2030.

We encourage you to read the previous reports for detailed background.

Here is a basic Summary of the situation:

Energy is already in Short Supply versus growing Demand.

Cogport proposes addition of 260,000 Megawatts of capacity by 2030.

The total estimated cost of investment is $ 636 Billion.

For the short term, Cogport proposes new electric plants as follows:

180 Natural Gas Plants ………………… $ 396 Billion …..  180,000 MW      

200 Small Nuclear Reactors…………… $  160 Billion …..   40,000 MW

400 Fuel Cell Generators ……………… $    80 Billion ….    40,000 MW

Unfortunately, neither the Public Utility Companies nor state/federal governments have a plan to meet the growing Demand.

Barriers to Capacity Expansion:

The high cost of initial investment - $ 636 Billion is a lot of money.

Utility Companies are not expanding capacity due to lack of funding and low Return on Investment.

Current Rules and Regulations add significantly to costs and the time to build a new plant.

Public resistance to new plants – the Not In My Back Yard (NIMBY) syndrome.

The Need for New Policy:

AI Data Centers are a huge factor in the new Demand.  Utility Companies have for the most part told new Data Centers that they cannot supply the additional demand on their grids.  The new Data Centers (Hyperscalers) will have to fund their own sources of electricity as part of their initial investment/capital cost.

Government Rules and Regulations must be overhauled to speed up the approval and construction of new plants.  The current rules are based on outdated policies and conditions.  It is time for reform without delay.

A Communications Plan to inform the public about the shortage of the electric grid, and the potential impact on availability and increased prices as Demand outstrips Supply.  Gain public support to overcome the element of NIMBY.

Commentary

Time is of the essence.  New plants have a long lead time to get into operation.  Action needs to start now.

Fuel Cells are the current best option for AI data centers.  The regulations are few and they can be installed within a year.  However, this will require producers such as Bloom Energy to rapidly expand their production capacity.

SMR’s are another good option for AI Data Centers and Public Utilities.  The lead times are longer – 2 to 3 years and they face the regulatory barriers created many years ago with large nuclear reactors.  A prime reason for immediate revision of the Rules.  Producers such as OKLA, Nu Scale, and GE Vernova will also need to scale up production capacity.

Natural Gas Plants are the best options for Major Utility Companies.  Still the lowest cost, but with lead times of 3 years or more.  Another prime reason to revise the Rules to jumpstart the construction of new plants.

Funding.  The Government needs to create a plan that necessitates Public Utilities to build for future demand.  The current economics do not support new investment on their own.

New policies could include:

• Government Purchase of land with lease to public utilities for new plants.

• Lease of currently owned Government land.

• Funding assistance – Direct funding or Government Loan Guarantees.

• Public Utilities by definition are under Government Regulation.  That power should be used to enforce a plan that meets the public need and support economic growth.

After 2030

Additional needs will continue after 2030 with economic growth and retirement of old plants that need replacement.

The Long Term plan should be to replace Natural Gas plants with sources that have low or Zero carbon emissions at an affordable, effective cost with high reliability.  High cost and low reliability rule out Wind and Solar.

Following is a longer range plan for new plants that will need policy support:

LONG TERM – After 2030

Large Nuclear Reactors           30  (1000 MW)

Hydro Power                            30

Small Nuclear Reactors          200

FuelCells                                 200

SUMMARY

Electricity is a necessity.  The Open Market does not work for new investment in the current scenario unless prices go higher.  And there is no time to wait for that to happen.

This is a situation where Government Policy requires planning foresight. That is not happening.

Also consider that a $ 636 Billion investment program would significantly increase the growth in jobs and the overall economy.  GDP will rise, and the people and economy will prosper.

David Hollaender                                   January 28, 2026

Cogport.com