Global Climate Change - Part 3 - 5/9/2024

REVIEW

In Parts 1 and 2, Cogport covered the history and environmental factors affecting Climate Change.  We noted that the Earth goes through Minor and Major Cycles in Climate.

The data show that we have entered a time of sudden global warming that is possibly the start of a long-term trend.  More data would help, but in the long timeframe of climate change, it not statistically possible to know if this change is short term or long term.

Cogport also provided data that Climate Change is correlated with the rise and fall in concentrations of Greenhouse Gasses (GHG’s).  This supports the prevailing theory that GHG’s are a primary factor in Global Warming.

When researching this subject, numerous influences on Climate Change were examined.  Many of these factors have interacting and counteracting effects.  For this Series, I have elected to focus on primary causes and effects.  It avoids distraction from the main points, and otherwise this report would become a tome, too big to digest.   

You may do your own research to learn more.   Or, just be aware that many natural forces affect climate.  Don’t get lost in the details of the vast array of research and opinion out there.  Ask Quality Questions about what you find.

PART 3

This Part will cover the sources of GHG’s that have the greatest effects on Climate and the share caused by Human Activity.

BASE INFORMATION

First, let’s consider the gigantic mass and composition of the atmosphere.  This will give Perspective on the magnitude of dealing with Climate.

Total Weight of Atmosphere (Mass)  ………………….………. 5.5 Quadrillion Metric Tons

(For Reference, 1 Quadrillion =  1 million billions)

(For Comparison, this equals the weight of 15 Trillion Empire State Buildings).

Total Volume of Lower Atmosphere (troposphere) ……….......... 212 Quintillion Cubic Ft.

(For Reference, 1 Quintillion = 1 billion billions).

(For comparison, this equals the volume of 5.7 Trillion Empire State Buildings).

These Comparisons are meant to scope the incredible amount of matter we expect to manage by climate controls.  Perspective.

Second, let’s review the major components of the current atmosphere, stated in Parts Per Million (ppm):

Nitrogen (N2)……………………………………... 780,840 ppm     (78.1%)

Oxygen (O2) ………………………………………   209,640 ppm   (20.9%)

Argon (Ar) …………………………………………        9,340 ppm     (0.9%)

Carbon Dioxide (CO2), a GHG ………………...            427 ppm     (0.04%)

Methane (CH4), a GHG ………………………....            1.7 ppm

Water Vapor (H2O), a GHG ……………………..        10,000 – 50,000 ppm (Not counted above).

(The amount of Water Vapor varies for different locations).

When I first looked at these numbers, it was striking that the concentration of GHG’s was so low compared to the total atmosphere.  How could GHG’s with such a small share have so much impact ?   

However, if you review Part 2, the correlations between levels of GHG’s and Global Temperature are strong enough not to be ignored. 

So, Cogport will proceed on the basis that the GHG theories have validity. 

The Open Question is the Variation in predictions from researchers whose conclusions differ significantly using similar data. 

WATER VAPOR (H2O) – SOURCES AND IMPACTS

Water Vapor in the atmosphere occurs naturally from evaporation with no help from mankind. It is not generally classified as a GHG. 

However, it contributes approximately 50% of all global warming effect from the radiative force reflecting heat back to Earth.

It is a static condition that fluctuates depending on seasons, weather, and other natural conditions.  Nothing for mankind to modify.

CARBON DIXIDE (CO2) – SOURCES AND IMPACTS

Carbon Dioxide concentrations have cycled over Earth’s history from natural sources, without the presence of human activity. 

In Earth's history, most emissions of CO2 came from catastrophic periods of volcanic eruptions.  Here is a summary of Two Major outbreaks:

Permian-Triassic Extinction Event – 250 Million Years Ago.  CO2 levels increased from 600 ppm to 2400 ppm.  With resulting warming, 90% of all species went extinct.

Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Warming (PETM) – 56 Million Years Ago.  CO2 levels reached 1700 ppm.

Over Earth’s history, major sources of CO2 are:  

O     Volcanoes (Periods of extensive activity led to climate cycles).

O     Wild Fires

O     Decomposition of Biomass

O     Outgassing from the Oceans

O     Hydrothermal Vents (Openings in the sea floor that emit CO2).

Human Activity had little influence until the Industrial Revolution which is defined as starting in 1750.   Since 1900, humans burn vastly more fossil fuel that adds to the natural sources of CO2.

History of CO2 Concentration In Atmosphere -  Parts Per Million (ppm)

56 Million Years Ago………........ 1700  (High Global Temps of 85F)

10,000 years ago …………........   270   (Last Ice Age Temps of 46F)

1750 …………………………......   280   (Near all-time Low in ppm)

1900 …………………………......   295    (+    5%)

1950 ……………………………..  315    ( +   7%)

2000 …………………….…….....  369   (+ 17%)

2024 …………………………......   427   (+ 16%)  (Global Temp 59 F)

1900 – 2024 …………………              (+ 45%)

Compared to long-term history, we currently have a relatively low level of CO2 and low average temperature.

In 2024, CO2  levels are 427 ppm, or 0.04% of the Total Atmosphere.  Seems small, but history and scientific studies indicate it has a potent impact.

The main concern is the recent rate of increase:  Up 45% since 1900.

That is enough to sit up and take notice.

Current Sources of Annual CO2 Release (2023)

Total Global Release – All Sources ………………….. 40,002 Million Tons

Natural Sources:

Volcanoes …………………………………………………..         200 Million Tons

Ocean Outgassing ………………………………………...        100 Million Tons

Decomposition of Vegetation/Biomass………….............          60 Million Tons

Human Activity:

Burning of Fossil Fuels ………………………...................  37,000 Million Tons

Cement Production (From Calcination Process ………...             40 Million Tons   

Note:  In addition to the above, Global Deforestation has another 8-10% impact on CO2 which is no longer converted to Oxygen by photosynthesis.

History of U.S. releases of CO2 From Fossil Fuels:           

2004  …………………………………………………………..     7,100 Million Tons              

2023  …………………………………………………………..     5,500 Million Tons   

It is significant to note that the U.S. has reduced its carbon emissions by 22% in the last twenty years.  (1.4 Billion Ton reduction).  This is mostly attributed to U.S. regulations on automobiles.

Compare the U.S. to  Global releases of CO2 from Fossil Fuels. 

In 2004, Global emissions were 27 Billion Tons.    

In 2023, it was 37 Billion Tons,  a 37% Increase in the last twenty years.   

While the U.S. goes down, the rest of the world goes up.  The global increase in automobiles and fossil fuel energy plants (particularly China) has changed the dynamics of CO2 levels.

In the current environment, Human Activity accounts for 93% of all CO2 emissions.

Again, sit up and take notice.

CO2 Impact as Share of GHG’s (Excluding Water Vapor)

The effective impact of CO2 is estimated at 75% of total radiative forcing (warming effect) from all GHG’s.

METHANE (CH4)  –  SOURCES AND IMPACTS

History of CH4 Concentration In Atmosphere - Parts Per Billion (bpm)

1750 …………………………..    700 

1900 …………………………..     722    (+    3%)

1975 ……………………………  1480   (+ 105 %)

2000 …………………….…….   1779   (+   20%)

2024 …………………………..   1922   (+     8 %)

1900 – 2024 …………………               (+ 165%)

Current Sources of Annual CH4 Release (2023)

Total Global Release – All Sources ………….  120 Million Tons

Natural Sources:

Wetlands  (Primary Source) ……………………    48 Million Tons   (40%)

Human Activity:

Fossil Fuel Production …………………………..    24 Million Tons   (20%)

Agriculture …………………………………………..    22 Million Tons   (18%)

Landfills ………………………………………………….      4  Million Tons     ( 3%)

Fossil Fuel Production means CH4 released by extraction, venting, and leaks of oil and natural gas.  (Russia has worst record))

Agriculture means CH4 released by the rumination process of livestock, mostly cattle. 

One cow can make 220 lbs. of methane per year.  Who knew?   And how did they measure it?

Human Activity is currently the source of 42% of CH4 emitted annually.

CH4 Impact as Share of GHG’s (Excluding Water Vapor)

One part of CH4 has 84 times the effect of one part of CO2.  

CH4 has one of the highest radiative forcing factors of all GHG’s.

The effective impact of CH4 is estimated  at  20% of total radiative forcing (warming effect) from all GHG’s.   (Compare to CO2 at 75%)

SUMMARY

Cogport has provided the fundamental information for you to evaluate.  While there is a lot of data, I encourage you to take the time to absorb it.  It will help put all the different media claims in context and provide a Perspective that you can use to form you own conclusions.

The Key Points shown:

O      GHG’s are a significant factor in Global Climate Change.

O     Human Activity and Technology now account for over 80 % of the emissions of GHG’s.

O    GHG levels are still rising due to human activity.

O    The chart of global temperature has pivoted up from the very recent lows.

O    The new trend indicates higher temperatures to come.

This report has exceeded Cogport policy on preferred length.  However, it was necessary to get all the basic data in place.  I hope you have been able to take it all in.  You can always come back and look at it again.

In the Next Report, Cogport will address the public policy issues and potential action plans for Climate Change

David Hollaender

5/9/2024