Climate Change Update

In early 2024, Cogport did a Six Part Series covering the long term changes in Global temperature and factors (Greenhouse Gases, etc.) that affect the Climate.  Summary:  Mankind has thrived in a Goldilocks Age of climate with moderate temperatures in a sweet spot – not too cold, not too hot.

Over 4 Billion years, the planet has changed from Fire to Snowball Earth to many ranges in between.

Here is an update on recent trends on the average annual temperature in the U.S. (contiguous 48 states) NCEI.

2015:   54.4 °F

2023: 54.4 °F

No net change over those 8 years, although the yearly actuals fluctuate with natural variation.

In 2024, the average temperature across the contiguous U.S. was 55.5 °F.

That was a bump up by 1.1 °F from 2015.

Was this just natural variation or a trend to higher temperature?

If you look at the annual changes of temperature from year to year, you will see fluctuations up and down.  That is natural variation.

We should continue to watch the actual trend over time.  It has been slightly upward over the last 100 years.

Climate Change is often attributed to human activity and release of Greenhouse Gases. 

As it always has, the Climate will continue to change – that is the nature of a system with many factors of variation.

Human activity is a factor, but natural changes are the most significant in the history of climate.

The Hurricane Fear

The Media has often pointed to hurricanes as an outcome of climate change when an increase in activity affects the U.S.  But the Media is silent when the activity is low.  That leads to misperceptions with the public. 

Perspective

Since 1950, the average number of Atlantic Hurricanes per year is  7.

In 2005 the number of Atlantic hurricanes was 15.  Of those 15, only 6 made Landfall in the U.S. including Katrina – a bad one.

In 2024, the Hurricane history was:

Total Atlantic Hurricanes:                   11

Total U.S. Hurricane Landfalls:            5

Hurricanes Helene and Milton were severe and caused the most damage from Florida to North Carolina.

In 2025, the Hurricane history was:

Total Atlantic Hurricanes:                    5

Total U.S. Hurricane Landfalls:           Zero

2025 was much lower than average activity.

Even though the 2024 hurricanes inflicted a lot of damage, it was not outside the statistical trend.

The data demonstrates that natural variation occurs from year to year, and over time. 

SUMMARY

Do not be misled by Media Hype.

The U.S. has a good record of reducing Greenhouse Gas emissions over the last 20 years.

We are not in a climate crisis, but we should continue to minimize emissions, and nature will dictate the long-term trend.

David Hollaender                                              13 December 2025

Cogport.com